Year-to-year variation in attack rates could result in underpowered respiratory syncytial virus vaccine efficacy trials.

OBJECTIVES: Year-to-year variation in respiratory viruses may result in lower attack rates than expected. We aimed to illustrate the impact of year-to-year variation in attack rates on the likelihood of demonstrating vaccine efficacy (VE). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We considered an individually randomized maternal vaccine trial against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated hospitalizations. For 10 RSV-associated hospitalizations per 1,000 infants, sample size to have 80% power for true VE of 50% and 70% was 9,846 and 4,424 participants. We reported power to show VE for varying attack rates, selected to reflect realistic year-to-year variation using observational studies. Eight scenarios including varying number of countries and seasons were developed to assess the influence of these trial parameters. RESULTS: Including up to three seasons decreased the width of the interquartile range for power. Including more seasons concentrated statistical power closer to 80%. Least powered trials had higher statistical power with more seasons. In all scenarios, at least half of the trials had <80% power. For three-season trials, increasing the sample size by 10% reduced the percentage of underpowered trials to less than one-quarter of trials. CONCLUSION: Year-to-year variation in RSV attack rates should be accounted for during trial design. Mitigation strategies include recruiting over more seasons, or adaptive trial designs.

International changes in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemiology during the COVID-19 pandemic: Association with school closures.

BACKGROUND: Little RSV activity was observed during the first expected RSV season since the COVID-19 pandemic. Multiple countries later experienced out-of-season RSV resurgences, yet their association with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is unclear. This study aimed to describe the changes in RSV epidemiology during the COVID-19 pandemic and to estimate the association between individual NPIs and the RSV resurgences. METHODS: RSV activity from Week (W)12-2020 to W44-2021 was compared with three pre-pandemic seasons using RSV surveillance data from Brazil, Canada, Chile, France, Israel, Japan, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, the Netherlands and the United States. Changes in nine NPIs within 10 weeks before RSV resurgences were described. Associations between NPIs and RSV activity were assessed with linear mixed models. Adherence to NPIs was not taken into account. RESULTS: Average delay of the first RSV season during the COVID-19 pandemic was 39 weeks (range: 13-88 weeks). Although the delay was <40 weeks in six countries, a missed RSV season was observed in Brazil, Chile, Japan, Canada and South Korea. School closures, workplace closures, and stay-at-home requirements were most commonly downgraded before an RSV resurgence. Reopening schools and lifting stay-at-home requirements were associated with increases of 1.31% (p = 0.04) and 2.27% (p = 0.06) in the deviation from expected RSV activity. CONCLUSION: The first RSV season during the COVID-19 pandemic was delayed in the 11 countries included. Reopening of schools was consistently associated with increased RSV activity. As NPIs were often changed concomitantly, the association between RSV activity and school closures may be partly attributed to other NPIs.

Impact of COVID-19 social distancing on viral infection in France: A delayed outbreak of RSV.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures have deeply modified the natural course of seasonal viral infections, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). METHODS: We analyzed French national data from three networks: emergency departments (ED) of French hospitals, general practitioners (GP), and hospital laboratories. We compared the number of ED or GP visits for bronchiolitis in children <2 years of age, and the percentage of RSV positive tests in the 2020 to 2021 season with those of the two previous seasons (2018-2019 and 2019-2020). We used time series of the previous 5 years to calculate epidemic thresholds. RESULTS: During the 2020-2021 season, the epidemic begun in February (Week 05) in the Ile de France (Paris and suburbs) region, 12 weeks later compared with the previous seasons and progressively spread across all the French metropolitan regions. The highest number of bronchiolitis cases in 2021 (Week 12) occurred 10-12 weeks after the previous seasonal peaks of previous seasons, but the number of cases remained lower than in the previous seasonal peaks. CONCLUSION: We identified a delayed RSV epidemic in the period that usually corresponds at the end of the epidemic season, raising concerns for the burden of RSV in the already strained healthcare systems during the COVID-19 pandemic.